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Mid-America Wholesale Prices Soar to Another Record High: Economic Outlook Plummets

Creighton University Economics Professor, Ernie Goss

(KFOR NEWS  August 2, 2021)    Since declining to a record low in April of last year, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral for 14 of the last 15 months.

The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national ISM, ranges between 0 and 100, dipped to a still strong 73.1 from June’s 73.5. However, as in previous months, between 80% and 90% of manufacturing supply managers report that labor shortages and supply bottlenecks continue to restrain growth.

“Creighton’s monthly survey results indicate the region is adding manufacturing business activity at a very healthy pace, and that regional growth will remain strong. Absent supply bottlenecks and labor shortages, that growth would be even stronger,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

July Survey Results at a Glance:

  • Creighton’s regional Business Conditions Index climbed into a range indicating very strong growth for the next three to six months.
  • Confidence index plummets to lowest level in five months.
  • The wholesale inflation gauge surged to another record high.
  • More than half of supply managers expect soaring input prices to be pushed off on to their customers.
  • Almost 38% of supply managers expect rocketing input prices to be absorbed by their company in the form of lower profits.
  • On average, supply managers expect price for their companies’ prices to advance by another 7.7%, over the next 12 months.

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